Earlier, when it comes to his contract extension with the Lakers, thick eyebrow said that after Thanksgiving. Now that Thanksgiving is over, it’s time to say something.
The only problem is how to sign. It is also clear to all that there is no more than one out of four:
Scheme 1: 1 + 1, a total of 68 million in two years, player options for the second year.
Scheme 2: 2 + 1, a total of 108 million in three years, player options for the third year.
Scheme 3: 4-year top salary, 147 million in total, player option for the fourth year.
Scheme 4: 5-year top salary, a total of 192 million players in the fifth year.
As we all know, short contract and long contract have their own advantages and disadvantages. Signing a short contract has more flexible options, but the risk is high. In case of injury, the value may fall sharply (refer to Corzine and Thomas Jr.). Signing a long contract, being held up by the team, but relatively stable.
In addition, many people believe that there is another potential advantage of signing a short contract: after you jump out of the contract, you will have the opportunity to sign the next contract with a larger total amount, and you will earn more total wages in the same period of time. Generally speaking, this cognition is correct.
However, after my calculation, I found that due to the impact of this year’s epidemic, the increase rate of wage cap has slowed down significantly, and the total wage gap between long-term and short-term contracts is not large in fact.
The following is a breakdown of the salary that thick eyebrow can earn from various options:
Signing the “1 + 1” or “2 + 1” and signing a new contract after meeting the “10-year terms” in the 22-23 season can make a total of nearly 200 million in five years. In fact, it is only 8 million more than that of the current five-year renewal and the total income of 192 million. After deducting various taxes and fees, the difference is almost the same.
Why is that? The key point is: the increase in the wage cap is not as expected.
According to the latest official news, starting from the new season (20-21), the salary caps for the next four seasons are 109 million, 112 million, 116 million and 119 million respectively. When thick eyebrow plays for another two seasons and meets the “10-year terms” in the 22-23 season, the starting salary in the first year of his contract renewal will be “salary cap x 35%”, that is, “116 million x 35%” equals 40.6 million. In fact, it is only 2.45 million more than the 38.15 million that he has renewed for five years and the third year.
Regardless of major injuries, income itself is not the key to the renewal of thick eyebrow’s contract, because no matter how you choose, the salary return is actually at the same level.
Since how to choose money is almost the same, what is thick eyebrow hesitating about? In my opinion, it is also very simple. The previous reasoning assumes that “serious injuries are not considered”. However, as the party concerned, thick eyebrow can not ignore the injury.
As we all know, he is not an iron man with strong fighting ability. In his eight seasons in his career, he only played 66 regular season games a season, and his attendance rate was just 80%. In case of injury in a high-intensity collision, the consequences are unimaginable. With the example of koshins (you are the former center, with a total income of less than 90 million in 10 years, and can only get an unprotected contract in the new season), he must carefully evaluate all options, and if he can lock in a larger stable return in total amount as soon as possible, he will be more secure economically.
This is why he clearly is the ultimate answer to the No. 5 position in this era, but I have always resisted playing No. 5 position and always urged the team to equip him with more meat shield type centers. There are Howard and McGee in the front, and Jia (and one is not enough. The Lakers still need to work hard). The purpose is to minimize the body loss of thick eyebrows. The delay in signing is also pushing the Lakers to continue to strengthen position 5.
Due to the delay in taking care of thick eyebrow, there is also a popular saying in the market: thick eyebrow does not sign a contract to wait for the letter brother. The letter brother and the Buck’s early renewal of the contract has the result, thick eyebrow will act according to the circumstances, plan and then move.
This “conspiracy theory” has a good market. Not only are domestic fans very popular, but also the local media in the United States enjoy talking about it. In fact, the original source of this conjecture is wenhorst of ESPN.
The general logic is as follows:
If Letterman refuses to renew his contract with the Bucks before the December 22 deadline, he is almost certain to be free at the end of next season. If thick eyebrow chooses “1 + 1”, after the end of this season, he and James can jump out of the contract at the same time. With the letter brother, the three free players will jointly make a decision to reduce their salary. If the three privately negotiate the size of their respective contracts, they can match the salary space of the Lakers and reproduce the scene of the big three in 2010. With the big three in hand, the Laker Dynasty is easy to get.
It sounds beautiful, but there are a few holes in it.
First, the deadline for the letter brother’s early renewal is December 23, the day before the start of the new season. Can thick eyebrows drag on so long? Letter brother is an early renewal, he has a contract in the body, does not affect any new season’s registration, training, preseason, he can drag suspense to the last moment. Thick eyebrow is a free agent. If he doesn’t renew his contract, he won’t be able to participate in the media day of the Lakers, he can’t practice as a Laker, and he can’t play preseason. (of course, if you want to say more holidays in this way, it’s not impossible in theory.)
Second, if we can “plot the big three”, does thick eyebrow still need to wait for the letter to decide? In the park, we get along with each other day and night. I’m afraid we have already discussed what we really need. Even if it’s a temporary initiative, it’s easy to make a phone call, or communicate through the broker’s side. As for the need to wait and see without saying a word?
Third, to say the least, even in order to maintain the flexibility of the contract, thick eyebrow doesn’t need to wait for the letter to decide. He can
article links：Thick eyebrow's delay in renewing his contract
Reprint indicated source：Spark Global Limited information