According to ESPN’s “Thank God” Adam Schefft and Chris Mortensen, if Wentz plays 75% of offensive gears in the new season, or plays 70% of gears and enters the playoffs next year, The second round will be upgraded to the first round.
With the current quarterback situation of the Colts, Dahe chose to retire. Wentz will compete with Jackie Brissett to start. If there is no injury accident, the Colts are very likely to let Wentz play three-quarters. At the same time, it triggers the terms of the second round to change the first round, so the bargaining chip for this deal is probably the first round + three rounds, which is similar to the Twitter rumor that the Bears used the first round + Nick Fowles.
Although the NFL official website expert Albert Brill broke the news that the Bears had never really offered a deal to the Hawks, but considering that even if Wentz is sent away, the Hawks will still carry a record of 33.82 million dead money (accounting for the total salary). Compared with 16.3%), in fact, it is not easy to take other quarterback contracts, not to mention the contract of Fowles is also very cumbersome, so Wentz to the Colts may be the only trade that can happen.
Is it expensive to change a bad quarterback in the first round?
How bad was Wentz this past season? Among the 45 quarterbacks in the league that have passed the standard, the PFF score is the tenth from the bottom, the EPA+CPOE composite is the fourth from the bottom, and the positive score ratio is the sixth from the bottom. Why is the guy who ranks the bottom of the league in various high-level statistics, why is it worth the first round in the future? Sign, and still get the big contract for the next three years?
“Deep Digging | Was it worth the bet on Wentz’s comeback? “This article elaborated that it is difficult for Wentz to return to the peak of the 17th season, but if we look at the problem from another perspective: Wentz’s five-year career has opened up the 17-season quasi MVP season and the 20-season pure junk season. In the other three seasons, Wentz’s PFF rankings were 24th, 15th and 15th in the league, and EPA+CPOE was 25th, 14th and 19th in the league. He regarded Wenz as a 29-year-old league. A mid-range quarterback, whoever changes a well-known star in another position must bring a first-round pick. Is it expensive to change the league mid-range quarterback that year?
In addition, in time Wentz’s performance next season will continue to be bad, no matter whether the Colts continue to trade or lay off them, there is no need to carry dead money.
Alliance’s comprehensive impact
Winston and Mariota, the No. 1 pick in the 15th season, left the home team after their fifth year, that is, last offseason. Now the No. 1 pick in the 16th season, Goff and Wentz, also left the home team after the fifth year, and they also did not perform well. Jia, also renewed the big contract with the parent team after the end of the third year, which caused the parent team to be put on the back of the league’s historical record of dead money. So who is the biggest loser in this transaction?
The 18th three Jermaine Field, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen have each played an excellent season in the past three years. It is reasonable to say that they are also very likely to get a huge contract extension before the start of the new season, but Gough and With Wentz ahead, Brown Bill and the Ravens may have to stay on the sidelines. The top three in the 18th session may become the biggest losers.
Last year’s second round of signing Jaylen Hertz had replaced Wentz as a starting starter, so it’s understandable for the Hawks to send away his predecessor, but Hertz’s performance last season was visually bad. CPOE-8.1 was second to last in the league with a real hit. The league’s worst rate is 65.1%, and the ball-holding rate is 16.9%. It leads the league by a large margin. Not to mention those bad passes that cannot be described in words. You can look at the following analysis chart for how uncertain Hertz is:
So I think it is necessary for the Hawks to use the first round pick to select quarterbacks this year, considering that the Hawks hold the sixth pick, and other teams with quarterback demands include the No. 2 Jets, the Falcons with the fourth pick, The Panthers at the eighth pick, the 49ers at the 12th pick, and the Patriots at the 15th pick, so the Eagles are also very likely to trade up to the second place or pick up the lottery in order to ensure their favorite goals, just like getting Wentz back then.
Of course, new coach Siriani may also use Hertz to try again for another season, but Hertz is definitely not a long-term training goal. Even if he is not selected in the first round this year, there is a high probability that he will have two first rounds next year.
Pony uses Wentz only by “instructions”?
Finally, it’s the question everyone is most concerned about. Many experts believe that the pinnacle of the Colts coach Frank Lake’s coaching career is as offensive coordinator in the 17th season to make Wentz a quasi-MVP and the Hawks to win the championship, which made him a job that won the Colts coach. , So Lake will wake up Wentz with the instruction manual from the Eagle period?
Just arrived in the Colts in the 18th season, Lake will use Andrew Luck as the core, the first pass rate is the fifth in the league, but in the 19th and 20th seasons with Brissett and Dahe as the starter, the first pass rate is the league The penultimate and 14th in the league. The 18th season has a quarterback of Luck’s level. The pony’s screen short pass and emergency goal pass rate is only 13.0%, but last season, he used the dying river, and the pony used this type of pass. The usage rate of the ball soared to 19.1%, an excellent use of ultra-short passes to help Dahe reduce the burden. When he had Luck in the 18th season, the pony’s use rate of fake running real pass was 20.9%, but when the quarterback was relegated to Brisset a season later, in order to help black guys, Lake had a 29.4% fake running real pass rate.
There are countless similar examples. Lake, who is nearly sixty-year-old, is not young, but his ability to “see food and cook” really embarrassed the league’s offensive masters. In the past three years, he targeted three quarterbacks with completely different technical characteristics and abilities. Using different offensive modes, the team led the team to the playoffs twice in three years, with a good score of 28 wins and 20 losses.
Wentz will be the fourth starting quarterback used by Lake’s in the fourth year (much like a tongue twister). The first two seasons of Wentz’s entry into the league are to learn professional offense from Lake, and Wentz’s technical characteristics and style of play Very similar to Luck, I am optimistic that Lake can seamlessly integrate Wentz into the Colts offense, but it is definitely not just the same set of the Eagles in the 17th season.