Why must the Tokyo Olympics be held?

Introduction: The Tokyo Olympics has entered a 30-day countdown, because the epidemic has been postponed for one year. Why should it be held in the face of many disasters? Tencent Sports’ “Mystery” column reveals the secret behind the Tokyo Olympics.

Why must the Tokyo Olympics be held?
Tokyo has entered the countdown to the Olympics
Thirty days later, on July 23, the 2020 Tokyo Olympics will be raging at the Tokyo New National Stadium.

This has been delayed for a year.

The voice of opposition and doubt from the people has never stopped. The latest poll-the results of the “Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games Questionnaire” conducted by the Tokyo Chamber of Commerce and Industry on June 15 for Japanese companies showed that, including empty venues, they agreed to “host the Olympic Games as planned.” “Respondents” accounted for only 35.9%, and the total number of respondents who requested “cancellation” and “postponed” accounted for 64.0%.

These are all more negative than the data feedback a few months ago.

On June 20, the day when the Tokyo Olympic Village was publicly unveiled, the shadow of the epidemic still loomed over the entire city. Civilian sports venues were closed, the frames of basketball courts were locked, and football fields were full of obstacles; Everyone who travels wears a mask and keeps a distance from other people.

Why, the troubled Tokyo Olympics, after a year of postponement, will still be held?

Signs outside the Tokyo Olympic venues
The troubled Tokyo Olympics

On December 15, 2019, when the National Stadium, which cost three times as much as the “Bird’s Nest”, held its completion ceremony, the people of the host might not be able to imagine it. This magnificent building will usher in its true debut. Actually have to go through such ups and downs.

On January 17, 2020, a huge five-ring sign was erected on the sea of ​​Tokyo Bay. This is a new city landmark erected by the Tokyo Olympic Organizing Committee to welcome the Olympic Games this summer. At that time, the world had rarely heard of the new crown virus, and it had not yet begun to spread globally.

At the end of January 2020, Yoshiro Mori, then chairman of the Olympic Organizing Committee, still said: “There are many irresponsible rumors. I want to reiterate that we have never considered canceling or even postponing the Tokyo Olympics.” But the epidemic, the Olympics and Yoshiro Mori could not predict his own future fate at that moment.

In mid-March 2020, the Olympic flame has been touring in the 2011 earthquake-stricken area in northeastern Japan, attracting a large number of residents every day, raising concerns about the spread of the epidemic. Since then, plans for reducing the scope of the torch relay, reducing the audience, and even carrying it by car have been discussed until this necessary link is temporarily cancelled, which seems to be a sign.

On March 22, 2020, the International Olympic Committee announced that it would make a decision on whether to postpone the Tokyo Olympics within four weeks, but in fact it only took a few days for the “boots to land”. During the period, the Olympic Organizing Committee announced the suspension of volunteer training, while Canada and Australia successively announced their withdrawal due to the risk of the epidemic; then, for the first time in modern Olympic history, the competition was postponed for non-war reasons.

Thus, we entered a year of long waiting.

And in the one-year preparation period that was created out of thin air, the various crises encountered by the Tokyo Olympics are only a lot more. Although there have been scandals such as emblem plagiarism and bribery bidding before this, in the year that should have been united to fight the epidemic and run the competition, it broke out that the Olympic organizing committee staff including Yoshiro Mori insulted women. , The suicide of the financial officer and other negative incidents.

Tokyo in the shadow of the epidemic
On March 20, 2021, the Japanese government, the Tokyo Olympic Organizing Committee, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government, the International Olympic Committee and the International Paralympic Committee formally announced after consultations that the Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games this summer will not accept foreign audiences. This is also the first Olympic Games in the history of modern Olympics that did not accept foreign audiences.

On April 28, 2021, the above-mentioned organizations held an online meeting. After the meeting, they issued a joint statement stating that it will be postponed until the end of June to determine the number of local Japanese audiences during the Olympic Games. On June 19, the preliminary conclusion was reached. The Governor of Tokyo, Japan, Yuriko Koike announced that during the Olympic Games Tokyo will cancel all public viewing activities, cancel all “live spots” outside venues and in public places, and some activities The venue will be used for COVID-19 vaccination.

On June 21, 2021, the Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games Organizing Committee, the International Olympic Committee and the International Paralympic Games, and the five-party talks in Japan ended, and it was finally officially confirmed that the Tokyo Olympic Games allowed spectators to enter the venue, with an upper limit of 10,000.

In the shadow of the epidemic, why did the Tokyo Olympics continue to be held in a disaster?

Many people in Japan oppose hosting the Tokyo Olympics
Tokyo’s insistence for 224.5 billion RMB

No matter what point of view people are asked about this question, the first reaction is probably-money, money, money.

As early as March last year when the Olympic Games was officially postponed, Japan’s “Nikkei Shimbun” believed that the losses would be between US$5.4 billion and US$6.3 billion. These losses were only the loss of the Olympic Games itself and the financial expenditure caused by the postponement of one year. But if the Olympics are cancelled, the loss will reach 41 billion U.S. dollars.

In other words, if you can ensure that the Olympic Games will be held as scheduled in 2021, that is equivalent to recovering a loss of 41-63 = 34.7 billion U.S. dollars. (US$ 34.7 billion is approximately equivalent to RMB 224.5 billion.)

At about that time, the SMBC Securities survey also listed detailed estimates: “If the Olympics ceased, the total loss (caused by the epidemic) would be 7.8 trillion yen.”

However, this kind of statement was passed by the media and netizens inadvertently, and it turned into a loss of 7.8 trillion yen caused by the cancellation of the Olympics. But in fact, the survey made it very clear that 670 billion yen out of the 7.8 trillion will be attributed to the cancellation of the Olympics. (670 billion yen is approximately equivalent to 39.2 billion yuan.)

Of course, various professional media, consulting companies, and financial investment institutions have different estimates for this, but they are probably within the above-mentioned order of magnitude. With such a calculation, it seems that it is not difficult to understand the mentality of the Japanese who insist on running the game for life.

Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike delivered a speech after the five-party talks
From the perspective of money, the main “economic card” played by Japan in the 2013 Olympic bid is roughly reflected in two aspects-

By Ethan